Atlas Quant Systems
SECTOR RESEARCH // CLASSIFIED F-913

Technology, AI & Semiconductors

Hardware capital cycles, supply chains, and fabrication foundry backlog metrics.

Global Semiconductor CapEx Gantt Tracker (5-Year Pipeline)
YEAR 1YEAR 2YEAR 3YEAR 4YEAR 5
ASML EUV Tool Order QueueASML Holding
COMPLETED
Phoenix Fab 21 Shell BuildTSMC
ACTIVE
Oregon D1X Tool HookupIntel Corp
ACTIVE
Nvidia Blackwell H100 TransitionNvidia Corp
QUEUED
Dynamic Gantt maps track real-time foundries build schedules. Delays or accelerations inside the Arizona and Oregon fabs provide leading indicators for equipment book-to-bill velocity.

Core Philosophy

The technology sector is governed by hard physical supply constraints. Software adoption is a lagging indicator; real alpha is generated by modeling foundry capital expenditures, wafer fabrication backlogs, and lithography tool bookings.

Target Assets

  • Silicon Foundries (TSMC, GlobalFoundries)
  • Equipment Manufacturers (ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron)
  • Fabless IC Designers (Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom)
  • Enterprise Hyperscale Datacenters

Primary Data Sources

  • SIA Global Shipment IndexesMonthly chip sales statistics globally
  • ASML & TSMC CapEx GuidanceSEC corporate 10-Q reports and order-backlog pipelines
  • WSTS Regional BillingsEquipment utilization ratios in East Asia vs North America

Strategy & Execution

The Setup:

Go long a relative-strength basket of semiconductor lithography and etch equipment providers when foundries expand CapEx, offset by shorting high-multiple database software providers.

Risk Management:

Route executions via passive dark-pool algorithms to prevent front-running on lower-liquidity names.